Saskatoon’s GDP growth is forecast to be a nation-leading 3.6 per cent in 2012, says the Conference Board of Canada’s spring metropolitan outlook.

The outlook, released Tuesday, puts Saskatoon on top in 2012 with gross domestic product growth of 3.6 per cent, followed by Calgary at 3.5 per cent and Edmonton at 3.2 per cent. Last year, Regina led the country with gross domestic product growth of 6.1 per cent in 2011, followed by Saskatoon and Edmonton at 4.8 and 4.4 per cent, respectively. Regina, which led the nation last year with 6.1 per cent growth, should see GDP expand by of 2.7 per cent.

The top-three lineup changes again in the forecast for the 2013-16 period, with Calgary (4.1 per cent) in the No. 1 spot, followed by Edmonton (3.7 per cent) and Saskatoon (3.4 per cent).

“Saskatoon has been red hot,” said Conference Board senior economist Rob Wiebe.

“It’s no surprise Saskatchewan’s economy has been boosted by resource extraction and fair agriculture picture,” he said. “There’s a lot of demand for food and things that produce food, like potash. Then there is the Bakken (oil) play down south and people are starting to re-examine nuclear, and Saskatchewan has uranium.”

“Saskatchewan’s mining sector continues to forge ahead, with expansion of 5.8 per cent and 7.7 per cent forecast this year and next,” the Conference Board said.

Major projects such as the new art gallery, River Landing, a new police station and water-treatment plant will mean further growth, he said.

The economic boom has also fuelled a population explosion.

Statistics Canada’s latest projection puts Saskatoon’s metropolitan population at 270,000, up 10,000 from the 2011 census.

Mayor Don Atchison said the city continues to expand at a rapid pace driven by a growing demand for “food, fuel and fertilizer.”

“We’ll be at 450,000 or 500,000 in the blink of an eye,” he told council Monday night.

Wiebe said positive migration patterns are an important forecast for the future.

“The most important indicator for a city is migration,” he said. “People vote with their feet.”

He said from 1988 to 2005 there were only four years where Saskatoon had a positive net migration. Since 2006 net migration has been positive every year.

“We estimate that last year net in-migration was over 6,000 people to the city,” he said.

In Regina the report forecast 2.7 per cent GDP growth. Last year Regina led the nation with 6.1 per cent growth.

“The story is pretty similar in Regina with a couple of local wrinkles,” Wiebe said. “They are talking about the redevelopment of the rail yards and Mosaic (Stadium). That could be a big, expensive project that could really boost the economy and Rider Nation.”

Last year Regina had a positive migration of about 4,000 people. From 1988 to 2006 the Queen city only had two positive years of net migration, Wiebe said.

Growth in Canada as a whole is expected to come in at about 2.1 per cent in 2012, down from an estimated 2.3 per cent last year, and lower than the 2.9 per cent forecast for 2013-16.

All 13 of the cities included in the outlook are expected see their economies grow over the forecast period by anywhere from 1.6 per cent to 3.6 per cent this year, and from 2.1 per cent to 4.1 per cent in the 2013-16.

The report also notes record levels of household debt will force Canadians to align their spending “more closely with relatively modest income gains,” and also points to government spending cuts as acting as a drag on the country’s progress.

“Overall, the situations for households, government and business suggests a weaker performance by Canada’s domestic economy this year,” the report says.

Scott Larson, The Star Phoenix