What's Coming in 2021? Flagstaff Housing Review 2020

I hope 2021 has been off to a great start for you!

If you have any big plans for the year, you might be interested in this famous quote by Benjamin Franklin, “If you fail to plan, you plan to fail.”

I would add, “Plan Early.” We know that the sooner you get started, the more likely you are to ultimately succeed.

As we move into 2021 this early in the year, figuring out what will happen this year may be difficult at best.

My Goals, 
Be there for you of course and then try to make up for a few of the missed hikes and trips with family.

Before I get into Real Estate, I wanted to welcome Renee Gaun.
Renee and I will be teaming together as the new year begins.   Renee is just coming to the office, so watch for more about and from Renee in the months to come.

Now to the World of Real Estate;

Below, I will cover the past year's Real Estate Sales history, and it was one for the record books.

But what will happen in 2021?
We have talked to a lot here at Realty Executives of Flagstaff
All indicators show that if we have the available homes to sell, it will be another great year for both the Buyers and Sellers.

There are positives on all sides
The Buyers Side,
Interest rates are at historic low levels and are expected to hold that course. Lenders are out there willing and waiting to help you on the lending side of  the purchase. I cannot say enough about the interest rates and the buying power this brings to the Buyers.
The Sellers Side,
With the extreme low level of homes on the market, am not sure there will be a better time to sell. I should rephrase that, though no one can look past tomorrow, we can look back even over the past 4 months. There has not been a better time to sell and I do not see this changing moving forward through 2021.
Even though we are still in the dead of winter, you should not be afraid to move forward with your plans. Those that are putting their homes on the market this past month are being pleasantly surprised with their final outcome.
If you have that second home you have not been using as much, this would be a good time to make that change.
With the tightness of inventory over the past few years, there is an increasing number of buyers that want to get out from under those rent increases year after year and take advantage of these current interest rates.
There are a few things to consider when selling, you should reach out to me about those.

I’m here to help whenever you have questions or need advice that’s real estate-related. Even if you need a contractor recommendation, I can help. Feel free to reach out to me anytime.

Below, you will see a detailed summary of the 2020 housing year in the general Flagstaff area.

Bottom line,

For all home types in the General Flagstaff area
24.7%, more homes were sold in 2020
4.2%, more homes came to the market in Flagstaff
11.5%, was our median price increase in homes 
1.52, months supply of homes on-hand, this would be considered our Absorption Rate.
65, The total number of homes of all kinds, Single Family Condo, Townhome and Manufactured, on the market as of Monday January 4th.

The following chart will run down these stats for each of the home categories.

What is this telling us?
We did have more homes come to the market this year than last, but sold even more homes this year than last year, it was a true Sellers Market.

With 4.2% more coming to the market, but selling 24.7% more homes, and at only 65 homes on the market today, we have drained any reserve in available homes we may have had.

 If all things stay equal and no new downside events happen;
I said above, we can have a good year in 2021, and still feel that way.

We had more homes come to the market in 2020, even in a Covid year. With things hoping to improve in 2021, vaccines getting out, and a new normal coming at some point, we are expecting 5-10% increase in the number of homes coming to the market.
With the pent up demand we have from buyers, this 5-10% will get snapped up right away. We do not  have the reserve out there like we did in 2020, so more than likely that may be our increase for 2021.

To Home Prices;

Looking at the numbers above and in the chart below, you will see home prices increased for all home types by 11.5% and just for single family by 15.9% increase.
With that said, we need to take a step back a bit!
What was not included above or below was what happened in our Gated Golf Communities: Forest Highlands, Flagstaff Ranch, and Pine Canyon.
those communities accounted for 19.5% of our single family homes sales, they had a 19.1% increase in prices and sold 103% more homes or more than double the year before.

When we take those Gate Community homes out of the pricing equation,
8.6%, increase in prices for all home types, compared to the 11.5% when you include the gated communities.
10.8%, increase in prices for Single Family homes, compared to the 15.9% when you include the gated communities.

Pricing may trend toward these adjusted figures for 2021 for homes outside the gated communities.
In a nutshell, that was 2020, and what we expect in the Real Estate world for 2021.
You know I am here for you, so please reach out. Even if not to talk Real Estate, have a new hobby coming, BikePacking so would love to talk about that.

Best Wishes as we move into 2021, and look forward hearing from you.

Jeff

 About the Author: