One of the great things about having friends and family is knowing that you help each other out.

Over the course of a year, you probably get asked for help, at least occasionally. Perhaps a neighbor has reached out to borrow some tools or a friend has needed some advice.

I’m sure you’re happy to oblige, whenever you can.

Why am I bringing this up?

We want to let you know that if you ever need help that is in some way real estate-related, you can give us a call. We'd be happy to help.

For example, you might need a contractor recommendation for a home improvement project. Or, you might have a question about the local real estate market and the current selling price of properties in the area.

Whatever help you need, We hope you’ll consider us as a friend and feel free to ask.

Contact us anytime.

A Look at the Frist Quarter of 2022 Flagstaff Housing Market

We wanted to give you an update of the General Flagstaff Housing market as we pass through the 1st quarter of the year.  

Before digging into the sale portion of our current market, I spoke with Chris Hallows over at Wallick & Volk to get his perspective on the lending side of things.  I hesitate to give figures as there are many variables in lending.  Your interest rate is contingent on many things, your Credit score, the day of the week and the option to pay points to buy down your rate.
What we do know, interest rates are moving up and we may not see them come back down in the near future. Buyer's need every edge they can get to compete in today’s market, we do highly recommend using a local lender.  Sellers are looking for assurances that the home is going to close and on time.  Having lenders that live in our community helps to assure this.

As we write this, we are up to 80 active homes on the market.  Though still way under the normal 300-500 homes for this time of year, the trend is moving upward. Last month we hovered around the 41 home mark.

Year to Date, as of this week, for all types of homes, Single Family, Townhome, Condo and Manufactured,
we have seen a -12% drop in the number of homes sold, with a -25.3% drop in the number of homes coming to the market.

Broken out,

• Single family, -7.2% fewer homes sold, with -20.4% fewer coming to the market
• Townhome, -36.7% fewer sold, with -26.9% fewer coming to the market
• Condo, -9.5% fewer sold, with -45.1% fewer coming to the market
• Manufactured, -6.2% fewer sold, with -30.3% fewer coming to the market.

 Because of the nationwide low inventory we have seen a strong growth in the Median Sales Price, with a 31.3% increase YTD.

We see and hear about active listings getting well above list price and in some cases, this can happen.
But as the current market matures, sellers are increasing their list price to match the market as it changes, we are not seeing as many dramatic differences between list and sales price as we saw earlier.

For instance, Year to Date, as of this week, let's look at the Median List Price at the time of the sale compared to the actual Sales Price

• Single Family Homes, Median List price at time of Sale, was $739,000, with the Median Sales price at $740,000
• Townhomes, Median List price was at $510,000, with the Median Sales price at $470,000
• Condos, Median List price at $337,000, with the Median Sales price at $341,515
• Manufactured, Median List price at $375,000, with the Median Sales price at $350,000.

As you see two of the four types of home types are selling under the list price by as much as 7-8%.
Single Family and Condo prices are going above list price, that difference has narrowed and is getting very close.

If you are a home buyer, what are you looking at? As mentioned today, we have 80 homes on the market, with the Median List price at $889,500. Broken down, Single Family homes Current list price on the market is at $999,900 with 65 homes currently on the market Condo list price is at $312,500, with only 4 on the market Townhome list price is at $632,500 with only 6 on the market Manufactured, list price is at $275,000, with only 5 on the market.

It is important to note that this is what is on the market today!

Homes priced under this do come to the market frequently, but do not sit for long.

Of the 310 homes that sold so far this year,
105 of those sold for under $500,000 and those homes were only on the market for a median of 42 days.
72% of those homes required financing of some type, which may take 35 or so days of those 42.
Most agents will leave the home on the market for maybe 5-7 days to make sure all have had an opportunity to see the home and garner the best offer for the seller.

So today, the Median List prices look daunting, but over a third of the homes sold are well under the median, you just need that FULL TIME Real Estate Agent to be looking out for you.

A little about cash sales.
We hear the figure of 50% of the homes sold are for cash, this is just not true for the overall sold homes in Flagstaff.  YTD 31.9% of homes sales are cash sales. Though that 50% is very close to what the homes in the Gated Communities of Forest Highlands, Pine Canyon, and Flagstaff Ranch, but not when you take into consideration all homes in Flagstaff.

We have covered a lot, and you may have a lot of questions, if so, please never hesitate to reach out to either of us, we would enjoy talking and helping you make the right decision for you and your family.

Jeff Ross * Renee Gaun Your 1st Choice in Real Estate® Your Team for Success 928-607-5556  Jeff Jeff@AllFlagstaffHomes.com 928-606-6232 Renee Homes@ReneeGaun.com www.AllFlagstaffHomes.com

15 E. Cherry Ave Flagstaff, AZ. 86001

Flagstaff’s Lunar Legacy

Did you know every astronaut who walked on the Moon trained in Flagstaff?

Now you can walk in their footsteps. Recently Flagstaff celebrated the 50^th anniversary of one of humankind’s grandest achievements – Neil Armstrong’s first step onto the Moon on July 20, 1969, and the Apollo Moon Missions. Over the ensuing three years, 11 other people walked on and explored the Moon. This was possible only with years of preparation, in which many milestones occurred in the Flagstaff area including astronaut science training, instrument development and lunar mapping.

Listed below are 8 locations you can visit for your own lunar experience and to learn more!

In Flagstaff:

Flagstaff Visitor Center

1 E. Route 66 / 928-213-2951

DiscoverFlagstaff.com

Stop in for area information, official Lunar Legacy souvenirs, Lunar Landmarks Passport, and selfie opportunity with a life-size astronaut.

Lowell Observatory

1400 W. Mars Hill Rd. / 928-774-3358

Lowell.edu

Guided campus tours with telescope viewing, exhibits and special Lunar Legacy programs. Geologists and Apollo astronauts studied the Moon through Lowell’s telescopes.

Cinder Lake Crater Field

Call ahead or visit the Flagstaff Ranger Station for approved access/tour information. 5075 Hwy 89 / 928-526-0866 / 4WD vehicles required

CoconinoNationalForest.us

Take a guided tour of this simulated lunar landscape of craters created with explosives by the USGS in 1967. The field was used extensively for astronaut field training and Lunar Rover Vehicle simulator testing.

U.S. Geological Survey Astrology Science Center

2255 N. Gemini Dr. / 928-556-7000

Astrology.usgs.gov

Location for early Moon mapping and lunar science. See one of the remaining Lunar Rover Vehicle (LRV) simulators on exhibit in the lobby. 

1-Hour or Less Drive Time:

Meteor Crater

42 miles east of Flagstaff, I-40 at Exit 233 / 928-289-5898

MeteorCrater.com  (50 minutes)

Experience one of the best preserved meteor impact craters on Earth, and see how this unique mile-wide geologic feature was a perfect site to prepare the astronauts for landing on the surface of the Moon.

Sunset Crater Volcano National Monument

18 miles north of Flagstaff, Hwy 89 / 928-526-0502

Nps.gov.sucr  (30 minutes)

This 900 year-old volcanic landscape was a frequent astronaut field training and equipment testing site. 

1-1/2 Hour Drive Time:

Grand Canyon National Park

81 miles north of Flagstaff via Hwys 180 and 64 / 928-638-7888

Nps.gov/grca

Often described as Earth’s greatest geologic showcase, the Canyon served as a spectacular site for the astronaut’s field training in geology.

Other Exhibits/Programs:

Museum of Northern Arizona

3101 N. Fort Valley Rd. / 928-774-5211

Musnaz.org

Tour the entire region in one stop, from the geology of the Grand Canyon to where the dinosaurs once roamed.

Source: Flagstaff’s Lunar Landmarks Trail Map & Passport, DiscoverFlagstaff.com

Celebrating Flagstaff’s Scientific Role in the Apollo Moon Missions

Have you ever walked into a store, and when you were approached by a sales rep who asked, “Can I help you find your size?” you had to explain, “Oh, I’m just looking”?

Maybe you even felt a little guilty that you were not intending to buy anything.

Well, the same thing can happen in real estate. For example, you might happen to drive through a neighborhood, find that you like the area, see a couple of For Sale signs, and think, “I wonder how much it would cost to get into this neighborhood?”

That happens all the time, even to those who aren’t thinking about moving.

If you get curious about a neighborhood, please don’t hesitate to ask us about it. We'd be happy to answer your questions about the area and give you a ballpark of what a typical home costs there.

When it comes to real estate, it’s smart to have a sense of what the market is doing and what homes are selling for in areas you like. That way, if you ever do decide to move, you’ll have a head start!

How to Stomach the Interest Rate Roller Coaster

By Chris Hallows | Sr. Mortgage Advisor at Wallick & Volk Mortgage

Just like the twist and turns of your favorite theme park thrill, the mortgage interest rate market is giving plenty of folks a lot to stomach right now!

Inflation is the big player pushing rates up and as the FED works to raise their funds rate that could help mortgage rates stabilize as inflation reduces but this is easier said than done. The Fed just finished their March meeting this week and though the .25% rate hike on the funds rate should be a positive thing for mortgage rates, mortgage markets are nervous about the statement that they will be talking about ‘balance sheet reduction’ in the coming months. Oversimplified, interest rates reached historic 50-70 year lows due to billions of dollars of FED subsidy via the COVID relief act as part of economic stimulus and that is sitting on the FED balance sheet – slowing, stopping or reversing that subsidy are all things that make mortgage rates push upwards. These factors coupled with geopolitical conflicts and economic concerns certainly set the stage for high mortgage rate volatility this year. Will this year be the best time to buy a home - no but is it a terrible time? I would argue absolutely not. We have to remember the average interest rate from 2000-2010 National on a 30 yr fixed was 6.29% and the average rate from 2010-2020 was 4.09%. That makes the current national average of 4.375% not look as terrible as some may think. If you or someone you know got a rate in the 2’s or even 3’s in the last two years you basically won the mortgage lottery as a global pandemic and billions of dollars of subsidy created a one time event where you could lock up a 15-30 yr fixed debt at what folks used to do 5 year car loans for!

The hopeful take away is see the big picture through this roller coaster, let it scare off other buyers so you can win the bids in this competitive, low inventory market and have confidence that rates are truly good – consult with us or other local mortgage professionals that monitor rates daily to customize your plan for home ownership!

Now to some Bikepacking....

In late 2020, a year before we decided to move into semi-retirement, we asked, what will we do with our time??    In my case, as you have read in our past newsletters, I enjoy the outdoors:  hiking, backpacking, fishing and some travel to remote locations. So what’s next?    One of the newer fastest growing outdoor adventure sports is Bikepacking.  It’s a concept very similar to Backpacking, where you head out for days on end, with all your gear on your back to hike and camp.

Bikepacking is similar, you just put all your gear in assorted bags on your bike and head out for days on end. 

In Biking, you have two main categories, Biketouring or Bikepacking.  The difference you ask?

Before I move to much further, you will see I inserted some pictures of our latest ride from the beginning of March. We had five of us on this trip, Rog from Columbus Ohio, Jon from Port Angeles Washington, David from Port Townsend Washington and Kathy from Austin Texas.  Only Jon and Rog had ridden together, I had not ridden with any of the group, but turned out we all rode so well together, we are looking for other opportunities.

Added note, those colored stretch straps on the front blue bags are Voile Straps, some of the best there are and super handy, well worth having around for assorted things.

Biketouring is, for the most part, exclusively on paved roads, whereas Bikepacking is on a combination of gravel roads and paths, to single track trails and some paved paths, though the paved portion can be very limited. 

Want to learn more?  A site to browse would be Bikepacking.com, which is my go-to site to locate defined routes in Arizona, neighboring states, or across the world.  They even offer answers to gear questions.

As I started to research Bikepacking I found thousands of established routes not only here in the United States but all over the world.  Here in Arizona, we have the Sky Island routes (East and West) out of Patagonia, which spans about 305 miles, while a trip to the Craters and Cinder Cone around Flagstaff is around 185 miles.  Routes can be as little as 20 miles to as long or longer than the Western Wildland Route, which is 2700 miles stretching from Mexico to Canada and could take 2 months to ride.   

You may have numerous questions: do we camp overnight, how many miles we will ride in a day, to what the heck do we do with all our gear, also known as a ‘Kit’ in the biking world.   

Let's start with the last question first, our Kit. 

This includes our tent, sleeping bag, sleeping pad, assorted clothes, food, water and bike repair tools.  The Kit is placed strategically on the bike; few riders carry much more that a small day pack on their backs to carry water or clothes; most of the weight is on the bike. On the front bags, which hang off the handlebars, you will find my tent and sleeping bag.  You should carry your heaviest items in the center frame bag, so water in my case.

You might also carry a bag off the back of your seat, which is where I carry my food or panniers that are mounted on both sides of my rear tires. Most the time I carry bags on my front forks (the Blue Bags) which can include water, although in my case I usually carry clothes and tools there. 

The next question, how may miles a day?  

A lot of this depends on the terrain you are riding. If we are fortunate enough to ride smooth gravel intermixed with some paved roads, we can ride 45 miles plus.  Extreme riders will bike upwards of 70 to 100 miles a day. In our recent Sky Island trip, East and West loops we ranged from 18 miles on a short day to 46 miles on a long day. The difference as mentioned above is mainly the road or trail conditions and elevation gains and how much Hike-a-Bike you are doing.   

So, what is ‘Hike-a-Bike’ you ask? Aren’t you riding a bike? 

We do try to ride all parts of the route, but at times the uphill or even downhill grades are so steep, the terrain is so rough, that riding is both impractical and/or dangerous and takes more energy than just getting off your bike and pushing. This can also be strenuous since all that gear, we talked about can push your total weight of your bike up and over 50-60 lbs.  That’s a lot of weight!
   
The last question was, do we camp overnight?
  
Yes, for the most part we camp at predetermined spots. I say for the ‘most part’ because we travel so many more miles in a day compared to backpacking at 10 to 15 miles on average and we are on gravel roads of some sort that go through small towns, so we have more options. For instance, again on the Sky Island East loop, as we approached Green Valley from the east, a storm was approaching from the southwest bringing cold 40 mile an hour head winds, with rain and snow. So, we ducked into a motel that night.  The next day it was clear with just a little snow on the ground, but not enough to deter us from riding that day.   

We finished the two Sky Island Loops, East and West, just last week, and I have put a few of those pictures in this newsletter. We met Sarah Swallow at the Appleton-Whittle Research Ranch of Audubon, who mapped out these rides on the 2nd day of our East loop. We found out rather fast what is easy for some is not so for the rest of us. When we looked at Sarah’s pictures and description of the East loop, we said this will be great, and it was, but there was a lot more ups and downs, and hike-a-bike than we expected.   Look forward riding with the group again in the near future. Jon is doing the Western Wildland Route this spring and summer; I may join him on the New Mexico portion? Just depends on timing.

Combined the two loops are a little over 300 miles and I hope to write about these adventures in future issues of the newsletter.

The next adventures, hike up in Utah, then a Rambler Bikepack out of Manti Utah the first of August.

Jeff Ross * Renee Gaun Your 1st Choice in Real Estate® Your Team for Success 928-607-5556  Jeff Jeff@AllFlagstaffHomes.com 928-606-6232 Renee Homes@ReneeGaun.com www.AllFlagstaffHomes.com

15 E. Cherry Ave Flagstaff, AZ. 86001

What do you do when you have a question, and you want to find a quick answer? Chances are, you do what we all do! You Google it.

There’s nothing wrong with that. However, I’m sure you’ll agree, it’s not easy to sift through all the information you get from a search to find an answer that’s accurate, up-to-date, and relevant to your situation.

After all, you don’t want to end up acting on bad information.

That’s where we can help.

You see, when it comes to real estate, you want to make sure you get the most accurate information possible, based on the most up-to-date data that pertains to this local market.

We can provide that.

But, more than just solid information, we can also give you insights that make that information relevant to you. For example, we can tell you approximately how much your home would likely sell for today.

So, if you need the best information, contact either of us, We would be happy to help.

An Overview of 2021 and What's to Come

Well, it was an interesting year in Real Estate in Flagstaff and Northern Arizona in 2021 and as we progress into 2022, the market has not changed.

All through 2021 we were plagued by extremely low inventory of homes, and a very strong buyer base. These two factors contributed to a median price increase across all types of homes at 20.6% increase and a median price of $540,000. You will see all the stats for individual home types in the charge below. Cash sales rose to 27.56% of all homes, up from 19.86% in 2010. Days on Market dropped from 92 days in 2020 to 52 days in 2021 and the average per sq. ft. price skyrocketed above $310.40 for 2021, up from $250.46 in 2020, a figure we never saw coming.

Now to some, this housing price increase is reminiscent to the early 2000’s which then brought on the housing crash in 2009’ish.
BUT HONESTLY, today and 2009 are as different as an apple and orange. 

Back to 2009, we had loan practices that allow folks to refinance their homes and use that money for most anything, along with very loose qualification practices, driving a pricing frenzy that drove up pricing of homes. On top of this, we had an overabundance of homes on the market. As an example, we had as many as 500-700 homes on the market, and as few as 50 buyers. We had so many homes, so few buyers and the sellers had to sell for assorted reasons, so prices dropped, along the way those sellers had refinanced homes at higher values to draw out the cash from this you saw and remember the housing crash and rise in foreclosures. Before we move forward, yes, we continue to have some type of Foreclosures but as the slide to the right indicates, they will be extremely rare.

Move to today, the situation has reversed. As I write this article on Wednesday Feb 16th, we had only 47 homes of all types on the market in the General Flagstaff area. We should have 300-500 homes on the market. With that said, we have as many 500 buyers out there waiting to find the right home, and as last year showed, 28% of those are cash, so they are not hindered by the loan and appraisal process, so offer prices are coming in some cases well above asking list price. It is seldom we see an offer and sold price that is at list or below. 

I bring this up because the comment we are getting throughout the Real Estate industry, ‘The Bubble will Burst’. Well it could happen, but the cause will be different, 2009 it was mainly caused by a huge number of homes and a slim number of buyers. Today reverse that, with very few homes and very large number of buyers. So, what can cause a dramatic decrease in housing?  Great question, in today’s market, more than likely something that causes loss of jobs, thus those losing their jobs need to sell their homes. At present our economy may not be showing any signs of that type of weakness. We are back to ‘Time will Tell’.

Since we are in uncharted territory, few know what will happen in 2022.
We have lots of builders out there at full capacity, with new developments on the books. Is it enough? Are there jobs to sustain today’s prices? Or will buyers slowly move to the outskirts of Flagstaff: Bellemont, Parks, Williams to the west, or Winslow to the East, or even Munds Park and further, to the South?

What we do know today, Sellers You are in one of the strongest markets to sell with huge demand for your home, we do not know how long this will last. Talk to your experienced Real Estate professional to make sure the time is right for you and your family. Today more than ever, you will lean on that experienced Real Estate agent to wade through the many offers, along with the confusing and complex contingences written into the offers by the buyer's agents to sway your decision.  Buyers Be patient, find an experienced Real Estate Professional that can guide you through today’s market - a professional that is there for you and will not leave anything to chance.

About the Authors:

Jeff Ross * Renee Gaun Your 1st Choice in Real Estate® Your Team for Success 928-607-5556  Jeff Jeff@AllFlagstaffHomes.com 928-606-6232 Renee Homes@ReneeGaun.com www.AllFlagstaffHomes.com

15 E. Cherry Ave Flagstaff, AZ. 86001

Flagstaff offers plenty of ways to get around – including by bus, train, car and plane – with the latter seeing dramatic changes in 2019.

Flagstaff’s Pulliam Airport has added service to Denver through United Airlines and to Dallas through American Airlines, boosting the number of passengers boarding flights to record levels. The airport has nine commercial flights a day – two to Denver on United Airlines, five to Phoenix and two to Dallas on American Airlines.

“The business community is responding positively to the new routes,” said Barney Helmick, director of the Pulliam Airport.

“This year, more and more business leaders tell us they are switching from Phoenix to the Flagstaff Airport,” Helmick said. “The new routes can get them to and from the multiple markets they travel to.”

The flights have averaged about 80 percent capacity for both airlines, which are “very good numbers for new routes and carriers,” Helmick said.

Officials with the city, including airport leaders, will continue to work with the airlines to provide more destinations, especially on the West Coast.

“Our target is to add San Francisco and Los Angeles to the current routes,” Helmick said.

Traveling by rail is another popular way to travel in and out of Flagstaff.

Flagstaff’s train station has been in the community since 1926, when it was built by the Atchison, Topeka and Santa Fe Railway. It is in the heart of downtown on Historic Route 66 near lodging, shopping and dining. It is also home to the city’s visitor center.

The station includes an Amtrak ticket office, a gift shop, information and short-term and long-term parking. Amtrak’s Southwest Chief serves the area, and it is one of the most scenic routes in the country. It runs through Flagstaff twice a day on its route between Chicago and Los Angeles.

Also, if you take Amtrak to Flagstaff, it’s possible to get a bus connection to Williams to access the Grand Canyon Railway to the South Rim of the Grand Canyon.

One popular way to get around Arizona is through Groome Transportation, formerly known as the Arizona Shuttle.

Groome provides service between Flagstaff and Phoenix, the Grand Canyon and Sedona. The Sedona service is seasonal, operating from May through October.

Customers can enjoy first-come, first-serve complimentary parking to up to 14 days at 2646 E. Huntington Dr. in Flagstaff. Reservations are required for the Sedona route and are strongly encouraged for other destinations, although it’s still possible to get a seat without advance notice.

For home pick/drop-off service, call (920) 282-2066 by 6 p.m. the night before scheduled travel to reserve it. Office hours are 6 a.m. to 10 p.m. seven days a week.

Another shuttle option is Inspire Shuttle, which is available seven days a week for service to/from Sedona and Phoenix. Call (928) 699-4228 or visit www.inspireshuttle.com.

A couple of bus lines serve Flagstaff:

• Mountain Line is Flagstaff’s award-winning public transportation system. Eight routes are offered throughout the city, connecting travelers to top attractions. The buses are primarily hybrid-electric. Call (928) 779-6624 or visit mountainline.az.gov.
• Greyhound Bus Lines has its station at 880 E. Butler Avenue.

The most likely ways to arrive by care are via Interstates 40 and 17, which connect Flagstaff to Dallas, Las Vegas, Los Angeles, Albuquerque, El Paso, San Diego, Phoenix and Tucson. The Grand Canyon is nearby via Highway 180.