Realty Executives of Northern Arizona
Ever want to pretend you’re walking on the moon?
Every astronaut who walked on the moon has trained in Flagstaff first!
July of 2019 marked the 50th anniversary of the moon landing. Not only has every astronaut trained in Flagstaff before going into space, much of the prototype equipment was also tested here. This includes spacesuits, the lunar Rover and stereo metric cameras. And Flagstaff continues the local legacy of space exploration. NASA’s current class of astronaut candidates visited Flagstaff in fall 2019. They completed the same training as the Apollo astronauts did half a century ago. After setting foot in Flagstaff, this group could be the next to step foot on the moon…or Mars!
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Local research geologists with the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Astrogeology Science Center spent a week with students collecting geologic data near SP Crater 30 miles north of Flagstaff(if you want a laugh, ask a local how SP Crater got its name!) In the past, there were other areas that were used for training, including Cinder Lake. This was created by NASA: they set off explosions to make the craters, creating a landscape with a surface similar to the moon, so astronauts could practice getting around. Much of the local geological training at that time was led by Eugene Shoemaker. Near the south pole of the Moon is the Shoemaker Crater, named in his honor!
The training the astronauts received in Flagstaff is related to geological processes: learning qualities of different rocks, and how to take field notes and collect samples. They test equipment and uncover the geologic history of the region. This will teach the future astronauts how to create geologic maps and replicate the conditions of real lunar or planetary missions.
To do this, they have a geologist’s standard tools – hand lenses, field notebooks, rock hammers, GPS trackers aerial photos and topographic maps – as well as modern technology like drones and a handheld x-ray tool to analyze the composition of rocks. Drones give a great overview of the area, but do not provide the more detailed geographical data that is needed and provided by up-close observations.
If you want to experience the same landscapes astronauts have, you too can visit areas surrounding Flagstaff, including SP Crater, Sunset Crater, and even an actual Meteor Crater! These hikes are open to the public.
Make time to visit Lowell Observatory to learn more!
Christmas and a new Decade are right around the corner,
Best Wishes to you and your family during this Wonderful Holiday Season.
As we approach the New Year, if you have thoughts about Buying or Selling, I wanted to pass along what I am seeing. The chart below comes from one of the companies I subscribe to that helps me stay current with Real Estate nationwide.
Granted, this is talking about a nationwide issue, but in reality, we are seeing the same thing here in Flagstaff.
We are on track to sell fewer homes this year than last. Not an alarmingly high number, looks like close to 1% fewer homes both that came to the market this year, or sold this year.
If you are a Seller:
The demand is very high for homes that are priced comparable to others in the same area under $700,000.
The chart above will show you the nationwide figures for our housing supply, as mentioned above, Flagstaff is no different, and follows the article at the bottom.
The second chart, below, is the Foot Traffic of buyers, you can see the upward trending in September and October, November appeared to be no different, though we have no figures yet, again trending with the article below, and here in Flagstaff.
If you decide to sell,
Planning ahead would be very important.
The discussions would the standard, staging, planning, pricing, etc, but just as important, the 'What If' we get an offer and have not found a replacement home yet?
We will make plans for that.
There are safeguards that can be put into place to make sure your home is not sold without you finding the right one to relocate to.
With these Safeguards in place, there are few reasons not to go head with your plans to sell.
If you are a Buyer:
Inventory is tight and you do not want to make the error of reacting to fast. But once you have a good idea of what you want in a home and find that home, reaction time will be key to the success of getting an accepted offer.
Before making that offer, we are able to do the research to make sure the asking price and your offer price are within other homes that are comparable in the same neighborhood.
So What Does This All Mean?
To be honest, it will be easier this coming year to sell then to buy.
Should that stop you from buying, absolutely not! Especially with the current interest rates. It just means we have to keep an eye on what comes to the market on at least a daily basis, get out to see those homes ASAP, and if and only if it is the right home, react.
This coming year the housing market will be defined by 3 things- inventory, interest rates, and appreciation. But the biggest issue the housing market will face in 2020 is an inventory shortage. There aren’t enough homes on the market for buyers, especially on the lower end of the market. This is a topic that has come up frequently within the past several months.
Based on what is forecasted, we know that interest rates are projected to remain low and that appreciation is expected to continue as we move into 2020. Additionally, the upcoming election will provoke many unique perspectives on the health of the US housing market. The challenge will be understanding what is actually happening and how you can best position yourself if you are thinking of buying or selling your home.
According to realtor.com:
“Despite increases in new construction, next year will once again fail to bring a solution to the inventory shortage that has plagued the housing market since 2015. Inventory could reach a historic low as a steady flow of demand, especially for entry level homes, and declining seller sentiment combine to keep a lid on sales transactions.”
Diana Olick at CNBC:
“Inventory has been falling annually for five straight months, after it recovered slightly toward the end of last year, due to a spike in mortgage rates. Rates began falling again by spring of this year. Homebuilders have been increasing production slowly, but it’s not enough to meet the increasingly strong demand.”
George Ratiu, Senior Economist with realtor.com
"As millennials -- the largest cohort of buyers in U.S. history -- embrace homeownership and take advantage of this year's unexpectedly low mortgage rates, demand is outstripping supply, causing inventory to vanish. The housing shortage is felt acutely at the entry-level of the market, where most millennials are looking to break into the market for their first home."
The most important thing you can do is understand what is happening in your local market. You may not be able to avoid some of the issues brought on by low inventory, but you can be educated and prepared. Let’s connect and discuss the options that make the most sense for you and your family.
About the Author:
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Flagstaff Community Toys for Tots
In 1995, a small band of former active duty Marines in Flagstaff under the direction of Mr. Hal Jensen, organized a Marine Corps League detachment with the primary purpose of developing a local Marine Toys for Tots program specifically for children in need in our community. Little did they know that in a few years the local program they organized would grow to the size that it is today.
Today, Flagstaff Marine Toys for Tots is one of more than 800 units nationwide. It is supported locally by the Marine Corps League-San Francisco Peaks Detachment and Marine League Charities of Flagstaff and the generous support of local businesses and individuals and an army of volunteers. The Flagstaff Toys for Tots mission is clear . . . to collect, purchase and distribute toys to children in need in Northern Arizona during the holiday season.
One hundred percent of funds received are used to accumulate, purchase and distribute toys per the requirements of the national Toys for Tots Foundation.
Marine Toys for Tots Foundation, an IRS recognized 501(c)(3) not-for-profit public charity is the fundraising, funding and support organization for the U. S. Marine Corps Reserve Toys for Tots Program. The Foundation was created at the behest of the U. S. Marine Corps and provides support in accordance with a Memorandum of Understanding with the Commander, Marine Forces Reserve, who directs the U. S. Marine Corps Reserve Toys for Tots Program. The Foundation has supported Toys for Tots since 1991. At least 97% of funds received nationwide go to purchasing toys for children in need.
The Local Impact (Flagstaff, AZ during 2018):
21,613 Toys Distributed
10, 620 Children Supported
It’s that time of year again, and those familiar Toys for Tots collection boxes are starting to appear in offices and stores all over town! For the 2019 holiday season, this all-volunteer organization expects to distribute toys to over 10,000 deserving local boys and girls. Many of these toys will be collected in local drop boxes, so every donation of a new, unwrapped toy is greatly appreciated. But what few people realize is that almost 85% of all toys distributed in Northern Arizona are actually purchased rather than donated. That’s why cash donations are so important, as well. And 98% of all cash contributions go directly to purchasing toys for kids. You may soon be spying Toys for Tots donation jars on counters at mini-marts and other businesses around town, as well. Those few coins that you drop in really add up!
Yes! The San Francisco Volcanic Field covers 1,800 square miles around Flagstaff, with over 600 volcanoes! The tallest of these, Humphreys Peak, looks out over the ruins of an ancient Native American pueblo in Wupatki National Monument. Around 1064 A.D., these ancient people must have been witness to the eruption of the youngest volcano, Sunset Crater. Some speculate that the eruptions are what drove the Sinugaua people out. Almost all of the hills and mountains between Flagstaff and the Grand Canyon are extinct volcanoes. The first of these volcanoes began to erupt 6 million years ago. U.S. Geological Survey scientists believe that there will be another eruption in Flagstaff’s future—but not for quite a while. So stay a while!
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Ever been inside a volcano? Red Mountain is a 1,000 foot high volcanic cinder cone that you can walk into! It is cut out in the shape of an amphitheater and is filled with hoodoos (tall columns of eroded cinders, ash, and lava). The U.S. Geological Survey and local scientists agree Red Mountain was formed in eruptions about 740,000 years ago. It is an easy hike off of US 180, 31 miles north of Flagstaff.
One of the side effects of volcanic activity are lava tubes. These are formed by molten lava flowing through a volcanic vent and hardening over time. There are a few areas around the Flagstaff area where these occur in small pockets. However, Lava River Cave, just a few miles from downtown Flagstaff, is a lava tube cave that is open to the public. It was formed 700,000 years ago and is approximately .75 miles long, and the longest cave of its kind in Arizona!
Want to go caving?
About earthquakes…
Arizona has active faults that run through the state. The Northern Arizona Seismic Belt runs from Flagstaff to Utah, and comprises dozens of active faults. Scientists say that the Lake Mary Fault (just south of Flagstaff) could produce an earthquake up to a magnitude of 7. However, most quakes that occur in the area are not felt, and no damage is reported. Will the earth move for You in Flagstaff?
Your 3rd Quarter Flagstaff Housing Update
This will be an update through the first three quarters of the year and for the most part for the general Flagstaff area. As a quick snap-shot, Flagstaff Homes Sales for all types of homes are slightly off, with 6.4% fewer homes sold. On the Positive side, the Median Price of homes sold so far this year is up 6.0% to $389,000. We did have fewer homes come to the market this year, but only slightly at a 1.7% decrease. Days on Market has dropped slightly to 102 days, down from 108 days.
Broken down just a little, Single family homes sales are down 2.1%, but with the highest percent price increase of 8.2% gain and Median price of $435,000. These are followed by Condos, which have a price increase of 1.9% to a Median Price of $215,000, then Manufactured homes with a Median Price gain of 1.7% to $245,000. The only category of homes that have decreased in price this year to date were townhomes with a 3.7% decrease to a Median price of $337,000. I will come back with a reason on this shortly.
We are seeing an uptick in activity over the last 30 days with the improvement of lower mortgage rates. We are seeing this on both sides of the equation. Sellers are seeing an opportunity to sell and either upsize or downsize, and buyers are seeing their dollars being stretched upwards with lower interest rates, meaning more home for the same monthly payment. We said a couple years ago we may never see as low of rates, but it appears that the ‘Never’ may have been misspoken. Time will tell.
Fewer homes have come to the market this year, but by a very slim margin, 1.7%, which is only 29 homes. We will see if this next quarter that number is erased and moves into the positive. If so, this will bode well for buyers and even for sellers, since new buyers will see that inventories are rising and may jump into the growing buyer pool, thus snapping up any additional inventory of homes that come to the market.
I said I would touch on Townhomes and the decrease in price. All but a few of our Townhome projects have been built out. We have a few going in in assorted areas, but that is it. Those new construction that are coming to the market, are coming well above our current median price, just not a lot of them. As I write this, out of the 42 townhomes actively listed in the general Flagstaff area, only 18 are available to move into, the remaining are in assorted stages of construction.
About the Author:
| Jeff Ross |
| REALTOR® Realty Executives of Flagstaff |
| mobile: (928) 225-3511 |
| email: jeff@allflagstaffhomes.com |
| website: www.allflagstaffhomes.com |
| 15 E Cherry Ave |
| Flagstaff, AZ 86001 |
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Where the Experts are - Serving Flagstaff and Northern Arizona since 1977
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